Was looking at the map again and noticed this.
What a game play and 4D Chess by the Iranians.
Hezbollah up in the North to stop any pipeline overland via Syria or Iraq
Houthis in the South to stop any cargo coming out of Red Sea
Shutting down the Straits of Hormuz for the Persian Gulf.
The only way out is to run pipelines through to Oman which means either we find opportunities in Oman or Oman is might turn into a really ugly battleground soon.
If i’m a betting man.. history has shown that prime land often doesn’t come without violence and destabilization.
But i would think this will continue to escalate further. There is simply no off-ramp. Cede and let this stranglehold come to fruition and give up the Middle East and Petrodollar or go into an all out war.
I think there is no off-ramp and just trying to figure out if they are going to try and take Chabahar (A much longer fight but a good deepwater port) or Pasabandar (Unlikely due to draft restriction – but swift and fast for acting as a supply base) first to act as a supply station / base and then from there destabilize and how bad the casualties are going to be.
I don’t think Pakistan would object to taking of Chabahar simply because it is owned by the Indians and it was to bypass Afghan / Pakistan. But this would definitely change the dynamics to some extent on the Eastern front relationship between the Indians / Americans and China.
Whatever you do, don’t short Ali or Copper. Back + Flat price up which is often the harbringer of a sustained rally.. Coupled with a reduce stockpile in Inventory and LME margins being increased today would suggest people starting to price in Risk for a much higher volatility.
